United States of America is still the most powerful economic influence in the world. If we choose to "drill baby drill", over the long run we will simultaneously erode Russia's financial ability to wage war on Ukraine and others by driving global energy prices down and slow inflation. This would begin the liberation of Eastern Europe from Russian influence through economic policy.
As natural gas supplies increase, we can re-route liquefied natural gas exports from China to Europe. As we engage Canada, open the Keystone XL pipeline, and enlist Mexico, we can reduce revenues to Russia and limit China's access to low cost energy resources. We can use our enormous energy resources to support our allies and weaken governments led by autocrats claiming a democratically elected mandate. As an economic policy, capitalism beat communism and ended the cold war in the 1980s and we can do it again. Russia and China both acknowledged the failure of their centrally planned economic systems and moved to a form of capitalism to retain their political power. As a system of governance, communism has no better track record. Supposedly free elections are overshadowed by fear, censorship, and oppression. A truly free people would not chose the ruthlessness that governs the two Asian nations. On equality and opportunity, Russia and China have made the political class in the two countries wealthy in a way that would make the robber barons of the early 1900's blush. While they pay lip service to their citizens, they coerce them into systematic oppression and trap them in long term poverty. The wealth creation of western economies and the spontaneous innovation of free people will always outmatch centrally planned economies and their political class. This is why they can't wean themselves off a form of capitalism. We should untether the us economy and demonstrate unequivocally that there is no economic system that can match it. We should not move forward with a 1960’s dual mandate of guns and butter. To leverage the economic strength of this country, we need to demonstrate the kind of fiscal policy that will firmly establish the United States as the global standard for fiscal stability, budget accountability, and credit worthiness. A United States Government that is not dependent on its allies or aggressors for financial support would demonstrate the impact for good that free markets, free governments, and free people can make in the 21st century. On defense, we should be the most respected nation in the world both because of our capability and our restraint. If we can’t lead from the White House, we should lead from the respective states. Let states set in motion a wave of capitalism and freedom that will demonstrate the influence for good that God given rights protected by Constitutional governance, including life, liberty, property, and the pursuit of happiness can have on the lives of our people. The US Forest Service today is not the Forest Service our parents and grandparents knew. Below is a Dixie National Forrest map from 1962. The text is more interesting than the map. The first line reads "You, as a citizen of the United States, are joint owner of this mountainous area". It goes on to highlight the recreation, private resorts, wildlife, timber, forage, and energy development in the area. Some quotes from the Forest Service map:
The multiple use philosophy embraced by the forest service in 1962 in no way resembles the forest service management philosophies of today. Unfortunately, many of the policies limit access, reduce recreation opportunities, and eliminate economic activities. If you want a PDF copy of this map, email me at rneilwalter@gmail.com. In my last 12 months at ConocoPhillips, we did some significant work on quantifying the process and impact of trade entry errors. It was surprising to see how data entry errors could drive metrics like Value at Risk and P&L. I hadn't thought about this for a long time, but I was going through my desk last night and found my notes from when I presented at Energy Risk, the premier energy risk management conference held annually in Houston, Tx. I co-authored the paper published in the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) magazine below with Kevin Kindall and Xianqiao Chen. We wrote a pretty good paper. What was better, was I had built a model to analyze the daily mark-to-market P&L by business unit or for the entire trade floor. It gave us the ability to see daily profit and loss changes grouped by price changes, new transactions, and data entry errors. I don't have PDF copy of that model. I'll have to scan the one that is in my folder.
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